Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.218918 2.340525 2.471937 2.625805 2.802803 3.002338 3.247789
2025-09-28 2.058691 2.207732 2.375205 2.580462 2.829984 3.130467 3.531959
2025-10-05 1.997912 2.172063 2.374312 2.632400 2.962723 3.387529 4.008520
2025-10-12 1.963622 2.160426 2.395785 2.707550 3.127078 3.704762 4.640690
2025-10-19 1.897524 2.103774 2.355187 2.696688 3.172668 3.862245 5.077065
2025-10-26 1.847887 2.063073 2.330029 2.701326 3.236866 4.054172 5.635078
2025-11-02 1.781379 1.997020 2.267352 2.648784 3.210813 4.098032 5.930453
2025-11-09 1.735483 1.954495 2.232288 2.630701 3.232510 4.222025 6.446880
2025-11-16 1.695823 1.917827 2.202463 2.616964 3.258111 4.355843 7.061473
2025-11-23 1.658248 1.882043 2.171647 2.599031 3.274244 4.474401 7.720417
2025-11-30 1.636500 1.865803 2.166068 2.616904 3.349470 4.720910 9.006065
2025-12-07 1.582471 1.805014 2.096768 2.535584 3.250660 4.596636 8.871443
2025-12-14 1.553649 1.777846 2.074264 2.525718 3.276956 4.749581 10.082778
2025-12-21 1.516447 1.738196 2.032682 2.484183 3.244014 4.767397 10.749134
2025-12-28 1.510230 1.739762 2.048663 2.531912 3.374113 5.190616 15.008126
2026-01-04 1.510511 1.749910 2.076985 2.600761 3.552771 5.810876 30.118520
2026-01-11 1.487789 1.727648 2.057438 2.590865 3.578521 6.028346 58.205491
2026-01-18 1.470382 1.712135 2.047015 2.595133 3.632950 6.357556 NaN
2026-01-25 1.439449 1.676990 2.006500 2.547054 3.574994 6.304509 NaN
2026-02-01 1.418573 1.655374 1.985323 2.530491 3.581624 6.478122 NaN
2026-02-08 1.399781 1.636183 1.967086 2.517899 3.595415 6.686819 NaN
2026-02-15 1.380841 1.616319 1.947199 2.501447 3.599258 6.864140 NaN
2026-02-22 1.371361 1.609477 1.946507 2.517858 3.677161 7.387525 NaN